In light of the importance of having the right 'view' on your data, as shown by the image above, I've decided to make three interactive plots showing the differences in COVID-19 cases between the Netherlands and Italy. These interactive graphs allow users to choose their own day Zero scenario based on the numbers.
Data for the graphs below are sourced from the RIVM official website via the CoronaWatchNL repository, the Italian official Github repository and the stichting Nationale Intensive Care Evaluatie (links at bottom of this page). The last three green data points for the Dutch ICU admission have a short delay and are therefor most probably incomplete. ICU admission numbers have to be manually added and have last been added on 2020-07-06. Use these graphs to iterate through the data and compare both countries. These are merely meant as dynamic or interactive graphs, in support of the available graphs of the Netherlands found on the Github page CoronaWatchNL, the RIVM website and the stichting NICE website.
Daily percentage-wise increase of new cases
These are the daily new cases divided by the total number of cases on the previous day, or
( daily new cases on day N / total cases on day N - 1 ) * 100 %
Official COVID-19 demographics of the Netherlands and Italy
These are the overal demographics of the COVID-19 outbreak in infections, hospital admission, icu admissions and fatalities for the Netherlands and Italy. You can select a period and whether you want to see the data in total numbers or the daily increases.
The vertical lines indicate the government measurements by Italy in RED and the Netherlands in BLUE.
Below you can find a table with the actions that both governments undertook. I've also added vertical lines in the graphs detailing the dates of these actions. NOTE that for brevity not all of the official events found on the official Italian decree timeline are included.
To the best of my knowledge, official Italian data is only available from the 24th of February onwards and they already reported 7 fatalities, 127 hospital admissions and 221 infections on this day Zero. I went and looked for a comparable Dutch day Zero scenario, but could not find it. Therefor I allow you to select either the fatalities, hospital admissions or infections as a starting point for the day Zero scenario. I've put the most overlapping day Zero scenario's for both countries in terms of their numbers in the table below, which can be double-checked via the graph above.
|Italy||221, 2020-02-24||127, 2020-02-24||7, 2020-02-24|
|Netherlands||188, 2020-03-07||136, 2020-03-13||5, 2020-03-11|
Day Zero comparison the Netherlands and Italy
These data do NOT take into account the population density, respectively 421 inhabitants per ㎢ in the Netherlands and 207 inhabitants per ㎢ in Italy, nor do these take into account the population numbers: 17.18 million in the Netherlands and 60.48 million in Italy. Also, the data does not take into account other differences between the countries such as ICU admission restrictions, who actually gets tested etc. Last and possibly most important: these are only the recorded cases. The total number of infections is much higher than reflected in these data.
This app uses data gathered from Github for the Netherlands and Italy COVID-19 demographics.
Data is sourced from the official Github repository of Italy and scraped from the RIVM website detailing the Dutch demographics.
The idea for these interactive graphs originated from this Dutch newspaper article, the AD.
Also, read the 'the Hammer and the Dance', an awesome story on COVID-19 risks on Medium!
I've also added the most important events in the charts, sources from the official Italian decrees and the RIVM events timeline linking to the Rijksoverheid website.
Also check out this amazing and interactive overview of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.
Read this Dutch article in the NRC on the complex mathematical modelling they do at the RIVM.
I've included the ICU admission numbers from the Netherlands from stichting Nationale Intensive Care Evaluatie (NICE) and compared them with the Italian data from Github, which were already available.